摘要
石化企业事故系统是部分信息已知、部分信息未知的灰色系统,具有小样本、贫信息、信息不确定的特点。基于某石化企业2008年至2012年间事故,建立石化企业事故的灰色预测模型GM(1,1),并运用灰色预测模型对该石化企业事故发展趋势进行预测。根据预测模型精度检验结果,预测结果拟合精度高。预测结果表明:2013年至2016年间该石化企业事故起数和死亡人数将逐年下降。该预测结果为石化企业安全生产管理提供参考。
Petrochemical enterprise accident system is grey system that partial information is known and partial intbrmation is unknown, and has characteristic with small sample, poor information and uncertain information. Based on the petrochemical enterprise accidents from 2008 to 2012, the grey model GM（1,1） is set up Applying this model, the petrochemical enterprise accidents＇ trend is predicted. According to the result of the model accuracy checked, the match accuracy is high. The results show that the number of accidents and dead toll from 2013 to 2016 will decrease in the petrochemical enterprise year by year. The results can help the petrochemical enterprise make safe management.
出处
《广东化工》
CAS
2013年第22期45-46,50,共3页
Guangdong Chemical Industry
关键词
灰色系统
事故
预测
模型
greysystem
accident
prediction
model
