印度的崛起与对中国安全环境的挑战

The Rise of India and Its Challenge to China's National Security

展望中国未来50年的周边安全环境,中国有相对较好的陆地安全环境,而中国的海上安全环境则不甚乐观。中国远期的海上安全挑战不一定来自人们目前最为关注的东海和南海,中国未来最大的安全挑战很可能来自遥远的印度洋。在全球化时代,印度洋将是世界贸易、能源和政治中心,印度对印度洋的控制,将直接危及中国的海上生命线与国家的安全,中国对此应及早做好应对准备。

In view of its national security in the next 50 years, China would have a relatively safe land security, but its maritime security is not so optimistic. China＇ s future maritime challenge might not come from the present flashpoints in the East and the South China Sea; and its great security challenge might come from the distant Indian Ocean. In the globalization age, the Indian Ocean would become a center of world trade, energy and international politics. India＇ s hegemony in the Indian Ocean might directly endanger China＇ s sea lifeline and national security, so we should be prepared for this scenario as early as possible.