新能源汽车市场的消费者特征与偏好分析

Consumer Characteristics and Preference Analysis in New Energy Vehicle Market

面对能源和环境的双重压力,发展新能源汽车是大势所趋。中国的新能源汽车发展尚处于初期阶段,如何有效开展市场推广,如何评估财政补贴政策是十分重要的问题。本文采用陈述性偏好选择实验的设计方法,考察了消费者个体特征,车辆属性,政策补贴等五类变量,通过网上问卷对近期准备购买汽车的消费者进行调研,使用了整合潜变量和离散选择模型的混合选择模型方法对调研数据进行分析。结果表明,目前中国高收入者对新能源汽车具有较低的接受意愿。对于PHV而言,受到本科及以下教育程度、长途出行频次比较高的的消费者有更强的购买意愿。对于EV而言,女性,受本科及以下教育,中低收入,年行驶里程不多的消费者更容易接受。财政补贴对PHV有明显的杠杆作用,但对EV的杠杆作用不强。

Considering the double pressure of scarce energy and environment pollution, the trend of the development of new energy vehicles is unmistakable. The development of new energy vehicles is still in initial stage in China, how to carry out marketing pron^tion ef- fectively and how to evaluate the policy of subsidies correctly are the important problems to be solved. In this paper, we use the stated preference choice experiment design method and examine the characteristics of individual censumers, the vehicle properties, subsidy and the other two variables. We conduct an online questionnaire to survey the consumers who are willing to buying cars in recent days, and use hybrid choice models that incorporating integrated latent variables into discrete choice model to analyze the survey data. The result indicates that people with high income have lower willingness to accept new energy vehicles in our country. For PHV, people who get bachelor de- gree or below and take a long car journey frequently have greater purchasing intention. As for EV, f^rrmle, customers with middle or low income, people who get bachelor degree or below and people who need lower annual mileage are more likely to accept EV. In addition, we also find that the subsidies have significant leverage effect on PHV, but the leveraee effect of EV is not obvious.