中国经济增长影响因素的变迁：2004～2011

The Changes of Effect Factors of China＇s Economic Growth： 2004 - 2011

在综合供给与需求角度下的经济增长的相关研究结论基础上,本文通过构建中国经济增长的面板数据模型研究发现,外来投资对中国经济增长的影响较弱,内部投资对经济增长贡献远高于外来投资;消费因素受到金融危机的影响较小,它对经济增长的拉动作用并没有降低,而出口因素受金融危机的影响较大;东、中部的劳动力处于富足状态,而西部经济需要更多的劳动力。面板数据模型的实证分析结果表明,金融危机对中国经济增长的影响是显著的,它改变了各影响因素对经济增长的促进或拉动作用,这种改变的幅度又随区域的不同而有所差异;中国经济增长结构不均衡,有进一步优化的空间;开拓以西部为主国内市场,不仅能使中国经济获得进一步增长的动力,更能为中国经济发展提供战略层面的安全保障。

Based on the research conclusions of economic growth from the pempective of supply and demand, we build a panel data model and found that, the effect to China＇s economic growth from foreign invesmaent is more weaker than internal invesinent; financial cri- sis has little effect to the capability of the consumption factor pulling economic to grow, but export factor is effected by financial crisis deeply; the labor of the East and Middle is rich, but the West requires more labor. The empirical analysis results from panel data model indicates that, financial crisis has a significant effect on China＇s economic growth, and it also changes all effect factors on economic growth, this change has differences among different regional; China＇s economic growth structure not balanced, it has further optimization space; developing domestic market including the Western not only can makes China economic get further growing power, but also can pro- vides security protection for China economic development in strategy level.