新疆产业结构调整的资源环境效应与响应的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis on the Effect and the Response of Resource and Environment of the Adjustment of Industrial Structure in Xinjiang

选取产业耗水量、产业能源消耗量、工业三废排放作为新疆产业资源消耗和环境污染的指示性指标,在分析产业结构调整的资源环境效应特征的基础上,采用脉冲响应和方差分解的计量经济学方法,模拟了新疆产业结构调整所带来的资源环境效应与响应情景。研究表明:(1)新疆产业资源消耗的时间特征呈现出长期以来农业用水占较大比重、近期第二产业能源消耗强度较大。产业资源消耗的空间特征表现为北疆幅度较大而南疆幅度较小。工业污染方面,新疆人均工业废气排放呈现不断上升的势头。(2)"九五"以来,新疆产业结构优化是以消耗资源为代价的,但并未对生态环境产生直接的效应。新疆产业能源资源利用效率不高,只有不断地优化产业结构才能实现能源效率的提高。通过对水资源在产业间的合理配置,最终能够实现新疆节约用水的目标。

This paper selects industrial water consumption, industrial energy consumption, industrial waste emissions as the indicators of resource consumption and environmental pollution in Xinjiang , based on characteristics of resources and envi- ronment effect analysis of industrial structure adjustment , adopted econometric method of impulse response function and va- riance decomposition, simulated the situation of resource and environmental effect and response of the adjustment of industri- al structure of Xinjiang. The result shows that： （ 1 ） The time characteristics of resource consumption of industry in Xinjiang showed a larger proportion of agricultural water lonely ; a bigger energy consumption intensity of secondary industry recently. Spatial characteristics of resource consumption are weaker amplitude characteristics in South of Xinjiang. Industrial pollu- tion, per capita industrial waste gas emission shows rising trend in Xinjiang. （2）Grainger causality analysis found that, ＂ Nine Five＂ since, Xinjiang industrial structure optimization is based on the cost of resource consumption, but did not have a direct effect on the ecological environment. The impulse response function and variance decomposition results show that： Industrial energy resource utilization efficiency is not high in Xinjiang. Only by constantly optimize the industrial structure to achieve energy efficiency. The rational allocation of water resources between industries, which ultimately to achieve the aim of water saving of Xinjiang.