广西对外贸易商品结构与产业结构关系实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Commodity Structure and Industrial Structure in Foreign Trade of Guangxi

通过协整理论、脉冲响应函数和方差分解对广西产业结构变化效应、进出口商品结构变化效应之间的关系进行实证研究,得出广西出口商品结构和进口商品结构变化与产业结构变化效应之间是一种较微弱的负向关系;广西产业结构变化受其自身影响较大,一定时期进出口商品结构变化会对其产生影响,但存在滞后性,且作用方向较不确定;产业结构的冲击对进出口商品结构变化存在正面影响,但作用力度不大。

By adopting cointegration theory, impulse response functions and variance decomposition, an empirical study is conducted on the relationship be-tween the effect of Guangxi＇s industrial structural change and the effect of import export commodity structural change. A conclusion is drawn that there is a weak negative relationship among Guangxi＇s export commodity structure, import commodity structure and industrial structure. The change of Guangxi＇s industrial structure is self-influenced and it is also influenced by the change of export com-modity structure during a specific period with some hysteresis, and the direction of the effect is uncertain. There is a weak positive impact from industrial struc-ture on the change of import ＆ export commodity structure.