宏观经济冲击、债务激进度与非理性投资——基于产权性质调节效应的分析

Macroeconomic Shocks,Debt Radicalism and Irrational Investment——Empirical Evidence Based on the Moderating Effect of Ownership Property

以我国A股市场的上市公司为研究对象,从宏观经济层面与微观企业特质层面相融合的视角,探讨了宏观经济冲击、债务激进度与非理性投资的关系。研究发现,宏观经济冲击对上市公司的债务激进行为有着显著的影响,在宏观经济上行、信贷规模较大、信贷违约风险较小时,上市公司发生债务激进行为的可能性较高;债务激进行为对非理性投资具有传导作用,具有债务激进行为的公司更容易出现过度投资现象;在宏观经济冲击、债务激进度与非理性投资的关系中,产权性质具有显著的正向调节效应。

This paper aims to explore the relationships between macroeconomic shocks, debt radicalism and irrational investment and the moderating effect of ownership property. The results show that macroeconomic shocks have a significant impact on the listed company＇s debt radicalism. The better of macroeconomic conditions, the larger of the credit and the smaller of credit default risk, the likelihood of listed company＇s debt radicalism is higher. The debt radicalism has a transmission effect on irrational investment, and debt radicalism is more likely to cause overinvestment. The ownership property has significantly positive moderating effect on the rela- tionships between macroeconomic shocks, debt radicalism and irrational investment. The paper is not only helpful to analyze the macroeconomic shocks transmission mechanism from micro-level, but also to provide enlightenments for exploring irrational decision- making behaviors of enterprise managers.