青藏高原东南缘丽江玉龙雪山气候变化特征及其对冰川变化的影响

The Features of Climate Variation and Glacier Response in Mt. Yulong,Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

通过线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall突变检验、小波变换等方法,系统分析了青藏高原东南缘丽江玉龙雪山地区气候的变化趋势、突变和周期特征,在此基础上探讨了玉龙雪山白水1号冰川进退与该地区气候变化之间的关系。结果表明:①1951—2011年丽江气温、降水变化倾向分别为0.15℃/10 a和9.0 mm/10 a;年气温在1998年前后存在显著突变,年降水量突变不明显;干季气温与年气温主要表现为10～15 a的周期,湿季降水与年降水存在1个准10 a的变化周期。②1998年之前白水1号冰川末端进退受气温与降水共同控制,1998年之后则主要受控于气温;冷季缩短、气温增加是玉龙雪山东坡不同海拔高度气温变化的主要特征,其中冰川区增温值最大在2.2～2.5℃之间,冰川加速消融。

The Features of climate change in Mt. Yulong, southeasten Tibetan Plateau were analyzed using lin- ear regression, Mann-Kendall abrupt test and Morlet wavelet analyses. In addition, the relationship between glacier retreating （ Baishui Glacier No. 1 ） and climate warming wasalso analyzed in this study. The main results are showe- das follow： The annual mean temperature, precipitation have an increasing trend, withinclination rates being 0.15 ℃/10a and 9.0 mm/10a; annual temperaturedramatically ascend in 1998 with the change values 0.7 ℃ ; Morlet waveletsin annual temperature andtemperature in dry season mainly have a 10 to 15-year periods,while an- nual precipitation amount and the precipitation in rainy-season presented a quasi 10 year periods. Prior to 1998, the important meteorological factor influencing the change of Baishui Glacier No. 1 are temperature and precipitati- on, while in the following years, temperature plays a more important role in affecting its retreat and advance; The main characteristic ofvertical-climate change in Mt. Yulong （1982/2009） is that the cold season shortens and tem- perature rises with elevation, and the maximal value of increased temperature in glacier zone is 2.2 - 2.5 ℃ , re- sulting in greatly accelerated glacier ablation.