货币政策是否适宜作为房价的直接调控手段?——基于SFAVAR模型的实证研究

Is Monetary Policy Appropriate as the Estate Prices Direct Control Tool? ——Based on the SFAVAR Model Empirical Research

本文选取2002-2011年间66个宏观经济指标构建SFAVAR模型分析了我国货币政策对房价的调控情况。研究发现:(1)我国货币政策实践中已对房价波动作出了反应;(2)相对于通胀,价格型货币政策工具更关注房价,呈"逆风向行事"特征,但其作用有效期较短,而数量型工具则在中长期对房价表现出较强的调控力度;(3)价格型工具调控房价每下跌5%单位,会使实际经济下降12.5%单位,数量型工具调控房价每下跌0.1%单位却面临50%单位的实际经济损失。借鉴国际货币政策调控实践,本文给出了相应的政策建议。

This paper selects 66 macroeconomic indexes of 2002-2011 to build SFAVAR model and analyze how monetary policy responses to estate prices. The results show that：（1） China＇s monetary policy has responded to the fluctuation of the estate prices; （2）Compared with inflation, the price-based monetary policy instruments focus much more on the estate prices, with the features of ＂act against the wind＂, but the persistent period is short. However, the quantitative tools show high capacity to regulate estate prices in medium and long term; （3） The price-based monetary policy tools make the estate prices fall by 5% per unit, while the actual economic will decline 12.5% unit, the quantitative tools make the estate prices fall by 0.1% per unit while facing a 50% units of the actual economic loss. By referencing the international monetary policy practice, this paper gives corresponding policy suggestions.