江苏能源系统碳排放演化及控制分析

The Evolution And Control Analysis on Jiangsu's Energy System Carbon Emission

研究了江苏能源系统碳排放演化及其相关控制.基于一类新型节能减排混沌系统,借助神经网络(ANN),利用江苏省统计数据,得到满足实际情况的江苏省节能减排系统的相关参数.对系统进行演化分析,得到一些与实际符合的分析结果.结果表明:全面开展节能减排比单纯加大对节能减排的资金投入在控制碳排放、降低能源强度方面的效果更好.尽早全面开展节能减排,使得碳排放的峰值早些达到,实际系统越容易控制,越容易达到控制碳排放、降低能源强度的目标.对比分析了江苏省与全国节能减排情况,江苏省的能源强度略低于全国平均水平.利用数值仿真来展示这些结果.

In this paper, the evolution and control analysis on Jiangsu＇s energy system carbon emission are studied. Based on a novel energy-saving and emission-reduction chaotic system, with the aid of artificial neural network （ANN）, the quantitative coefficients of the actual system of Jiangsu are identified according to the statistical data of Jiangsu. An empirical study of the real system is carried out with the results in perfect agreement with actual situation. The results show that, the effect of developing energy-saving and emission-reduction as soon as possible will be better than simply increasing investment for energy-saving and emission-reduction. The sooner and more perfect energy-saving and emission-reduction is started, the easier and sooner the maximum of the carbon emissions will be achieved, the easier the actual system could be controlled, so as to achieve the goal of reducing the carbon dioxide emissions and keeping proper energy intensity. A comparative analysis with the result of China＇s energy-saving and emission-reduction is performed, Jiangsu＇s energy intensity is slightly lower than the national average. Numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the results.