洪湖地区养殖鱼塘春夏季水温变化及预报研究

Water Temperature Change and Forecast in Spring and Summer in Aquaculture Fish Pond's in Honghu Area

为了针对洪湖地区养殖鱼塘开展春夏季水温预报,指导当地渔业生产,对2011—2012年当地典型鱼塘春夏季的水温和相应气温资料进行分析和研究。结果表明：水位越深日变幅越小,且春季表层水温与深层水温的差异较大,而夏季差别则相对较小：水温与气温的相关关系结果表明：水温与当日及前1~3日气温关系显著。以当日、前1~3日的平均气温、最高气温、最低气温为预报因子,采用逐步回归法建立的春夏季日平均水温、春季日最低水温和夏季日最高水温预报模型,其回归效果都达到了极显著水平,决定系数达到0.84~0.98;将建立的预报模型用2011年5月和7月的水温进行对比验证,模型的拟合效果5月较好,7月稍差,模型平均相对误差均在4%以内、精度较高,表明建立的模型可为洪湖地区大宗鱼塘水温进行预报,从而为各项渔业生产活动提供指导和服务。

In order to forecast fish pond’s water temperature and to guide local fisheries production in Honghu Area,water temperature and air temperature data of local typical fish pond in spring and summer of 2011 and 2012 were analyzed.The results showed that： with the deepening of the water level,the diurnal range of water temperature decreased.Generally speaking,the difference of surface and deep water levels’ temperature in spring was larger while in summer relatively smaller.The correlation analysis results of water temperature and air temperature showed that significant relationship between water temperature of the day and air temperature of the day and past 1 to 3 days.With the mean,maximum and minimum air temperatures of the day and past 1 to 3 days as predictors,the mean,maximum and minimum water temperature forecast models of spring and summer seasons were established separately by stepwise regression method,and the determination coefficient reached 0.84 to 0.98.Comparing the modeled water temperature with the water temperature data of May and July 2011,and in May the model fitted better.Established model all had high precision with average relative error value less than 4%.That was to say,the established water temperature models could be used to forecast the fish pond water temperature for Honghu Area,which could provide effective guidance and meteorological services for fisheries production activities.