摘要
突发事件一旦出现,事前规划难以应对不断衍变的突发事件。依靠良好的分析工具可以帮助决策者把握时机,基于当前信息对危机趋势进行分析。本文通过对应急决策和情景分析方法的论述,从不确定性分析、动态分析和阶段性决策角度进行结合,设计一套基于情景分析的应急决策机制,从而为突发事件应急管理提供一种基于"情景——应对"模式的方法和思路。
Once the emergency appears, advance planning is di^cult to cope with constantly changing of emergency. Re- lying on good analysis tools, decision makers can seize the moment, and analysis the trend on the basis cff the current crisis infor- marion. Based on the emergency decision- making and scenario analysis merit, this paper give an angle which combine uncer- tainty analysis, dynamic analysis and phased decision- making, design a set of emergency decision- making mechanism based on scenario analysis, so as to provide emergency management a method and train of thought which based on the ＂scenario- response＂ model.
出处
《现代情报》
CSSCI
2013年第11期29-32,共4页
Journal of Modern Information
关键词
情景分析
情景——应对
应急沟通
应急决策
scenario analysis
scenario- response
emergency communication
emergency decision- making
