气候变暖背景下黑龙江省水稻初霜冻灾害风险区划研究

The Research of Risk Zoning of Rice Frost Disaster Under the Climate Warming in Heilongjiang Province

为了减轻黑龙江省水稻初霜冻灾害造成的损失,实现初霜冻灾害风险性管理,并为农业生产合理布局提供科学依据,利用GIS技术将气候数据、地理信息数据以及社会经济数据相结合,分析了水稻初霜冻灾害的危险性和易损性,实现了水稻初霜冻灾害的风险评估与区划,并分析了气候变暖背景下初霜冻灾害的变化特征。结果表明:水稻初霜冻灾害在致灾因子危险性和承灾体易损性综合作用下,可划分为5个等级区域,每个等级区域因影响因子的不同,划分区域类型也有所差异;气候变暖使初霜冻灾害出现的概率有所减少,但气候条件的不稳定以及人类的适应性行为使得霜冻灾害的潜在危险性有增加的趋势。

In order to reduce the loss of the rice frost disaster, achieve the frost disaster risk management, and to provide a scientific basis for the rational distribution of agricultural production, the authors used the climate data, geographic information and the economy data, the early frost disaster risk and the vulnerability of rice were analyzed, the framework for early frost disaster risk assessment and regionalization was built based on the GIS technology, the characteristics of early frost disaster were also analyzed under the background of climate warming. The results showed that, the rice early frost disaster could be divided into 5 grades according to the hazard and the vulnerability of natural disaster bodies. Each grade regions were different due to the different type of impact factors. Climate warming makes the early frost disasters occurrence decreases, but the climate conditions instability and the adaptability of the human behavior made the potential danger of frost disasters increased.