内蒙古河套灌区主要作物气象产量的风险分析

Risk Assessment of Meteorological Yield in Yellow River Irrigation District of Inner Mongolia

为弄清作物产量面临的风险水平,通过分析内蒙古河套灌区1953—2011年间12个旗县(市、区)的粮食、小麦、玉米和向日葵的产量资料,利用5年直线滑动平均模型分离实际产量,计算了气象产量的变异系数、年平均减产率、风险概率和综合风险指数等指标,对该区域作物产量灾害风险进行研究。结果表明:河套灌区粮食单产的4种风险指数总体小于小麦、玉米和向日葵的,以向日葵的最大,小麦和玉米的风险指数介于粮食和向日葵的风险指数;地区间以准格尔旗的几种单产的风险要高于其他地区;4种风险指数的最小值,在不同作物上没有明显区域特点。从减产风险概率看,河套灌区作物增产的地区多于减产地区的概率略高一些。

In order to recognize the risk of nature disaster on crop yield, the yield of four crops within 12 countries during 1953 to 2011 had analyzed. In this study 5 years liner moving average model was used to calculate the meteorological trend yield, the coefficient of variation, the average annual yield reduction rate, the probability of risk and the integrated risk index, the risk on crop yield had analyze. The results showed that the risk index of grain yield was the minimum and sunflower was the maximum in the four corps. Jungar Banner＇ s Risk indexes was higher than other district. There was no significant regional difference in the minimum risk indexes of four crops. The probability of yield increase district was more than decrease one.