BEIR V辐射致癌危险系数估算的方法和结果

METHOD OF BEIR V FOR ESTIMATING THE RISK COEFFICIENT OF RADIATION-INDUCED CANCERS AND THE RESULTING ESTIMATES

本文简要介绍1990年发表的 BEIR V 报告的辐射致癌危险估计模型及其计算结果。与 BEIR Ⅲ报告相比较,资料的随访时间又有延长,在方法学上的重要变化是使用新的剂量体系 DS86,不再使用原来的恒定预测模型,通过多因素分析技术增加了某些时间变量对危险估计的修饰作用,对不同类别的癌症分别使用不同的模型和参数。计算后给出一次急性照射(0.1 Sv)的癌症死亡危险系数是7.9×10^(-2)Sv^(-1),与 UNSCEAR1988年报告结果相似。但是,BEIR V 认为在把这个结果用于估计低剂量照射危险时没有必要再使用剂量率校正因子。

The projection model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancers and the result ob-tained in report BEIR V published in 1990 were described in brief in this paper.Comparing with pre-vious report BEIR Ⅲ,there are some changes in report BEIR V and they are that the period of follow-up was extended,that dosemetry DS86 was used instead of T65D,that the multiplicative projec-tion model was used instead of additive model,and that for different types of cancer,different projec-tion model was used.The risk for fatal cancer was estimated to be 7.9×10^(-2)Sv^(-1) which is similar tothe estimate in UNSCEAR 1988 report.According to BEIR V,however,there needs no use of a doserate effectiveness factor(DREF)in risk estimation at low dose.