核事故早期场外应急干预措施优化技术研究

Optimization Methods for Nuclear Accident Emergencies' Early Off-site Intervention Strategy

对核事故早期场外干预措施中的应急方案生成、应急决策分析和撤离路径优化进行了初步的研究和分析,建立了实现软件化的技术开发模型。设计了"二进制筛选法",实现了候选方案集的快速生成,并分别对多属性效用分析、灰色关联分析和单纯形法进行了技术论证和实现,最后基于C#和Matlab混合开发的界面,对核事故早期场外干预措施优化技术进行了具体的物理模型计算,验证其可行性。结果表明,设计的核事故早期场外干预措施优化技术可靠,对核事故早期场外干预实现了软件模型。

Nuclear accident emergencies＂ early off-site intervention strategy was analyzed in this paper, including emergency schemes＇generation, emergency decision evaluation analysis and evacuating routine optimization. Models of theoretical development were constructed to realize software modularity. Common models and methods were studied with comparisons among the possible ones, a ＂binary screening＂ method was designed To achieve emergency schemes＂ generation constantly, multi-attribute value evaluation, gray estimation and linear programming were used in decision analysis and routine optimization. Interface of this program was created based on C＂ and MATLAB, and a specific example was given to validate in the end. Conclusions are made that this technique is reliable and performs well in the nuclear accident emergencies＇early off-site intervention strategy.