房地产价格泡沫测度及区域差异性研究——以中国35个大中城市为例

The Measurement and Regional Differences of the Real Estate Price Bubble——Taking 35 Large and Medium- sized Cities in China as an Example

房地产价格的波动关系国民经济的健康发展和人民生活的和谐稳定，判断房价有无泡沫、泡沫程度大小是实施房地产调控政策的一个重要基础。在综合考虑经济基本面和心理预期因素影响的基础上，对1999～2011年间35个大中城市的房价建立动态面板数据模型，借助迭代回归方法计算均衡价格，将由经济基本面决定的均衡价格与实际价格进行比较，从而测算出各个城市房价泡沫度。结论表明近几年我国大多数城市房价泡沫有加大趋势，但不同城市之间房价泡沫程度差异较大。因此，房地产市场调控应考虑城市之间的差异性，采取差异化的调控政策。

There are important relationships between the real estate price fluctuation and the healthy development of national economy and people＇ s life of harmony and stability. Identifying the degree of real estate price bubble is an important basic for the real estate regulation policy. In consideration of the economic fundamentals and psychological factors, we found a dynamic panel data model for 35 large and medium -sized cities in 1999 ~ 2011 based on the method of iterative regression. With the help of this model, we can get the equilibrium price for every city, then we measure each city＇ s housing price bubbles through comparing the real price and the equilibrium price. Results indicate that the bubble has an increasing trend in recent years, but there are obvious differences between cities. So real estate market regulation policy should take account of the differences between cities.