中国公共债务与财政可持续性分析——基于结构突变BP法的实证结果

China's Public Debt and Fiscal Sustainability Analysis:Based on the BP Method of the Empirical Results of Structural Breaks

中国公共财政状况虽无近忧,但需远虑。运用带结构断点的单位根检验和财政反应函数定量分析,发现中国公共财政目前尚可持续,但是政府对未来可能出现的财政隐患显得反应不足。以1988、1997年为结构突变断点,中国公共财政表现出明显的阶段性特征,各项反应系数不尽相同。制度转轨、经济发展战略是影响中国财政可持续性的主要因素,而周期性因素并非影响财政可持续性的重要因素。

China＇ s public finance is not an seriously problem, but need to pay attention to it in the future. This article uses the unit root test with structural breakpoints and fiscal response function of quantitative analysis, finding that China＇ s public finance at present can be sustainable, but the government seems to be inadequate to cope with possible future financial hidden troubles. With 1988, 1997 for the structure breakpoints, the result shows stage characteristics of China＇ s public finances, and the reaction coefficients are not the same. System transformation and economic development strategy are the main factors affecting China＇ s fiscal sustainability, cyclical factors are not important factors affect fiscal sustainability.