国际铸币税收支对我国经济影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of International Seigniorage's Impact on China's Economy

人民币国际化使我国获得国际铸币税收入,由于国际收支顺差导致的外汇储备增加又使我国支出国际铸币税,因此,国际铸币税也有一个收支问题。本文在计算我国1996年—2011年国际铸币税收支情况的基础上,运用相关性和回归方法实证分析了我国的国际铸币税收支对我国经济的影响。最后得出:我国的国际铸币税收支对我国的物价水平、利率水平、汇率水平、财政赤字、净出口没有影响,对我国的GDP、货币供给和外汇储备有影响。

The internationalization of RMB helps China to have international seigniorage. However, the foreign exchange reserves increase due to the balance of payments surplus makes China pay international seigniorage. Therefore, the international seignior-age also faces the balance of payments problem. Based on the calculation of the international seigniorage from the year 1996 to 2011 in China, this paper employs the correlation analysis and regression analysis to empirically analyze the international sei-gniorage＇ s impact on China＇ s economy. Finally it is concluded that international seigniorage in China does not exert impact on China＇ s price, interest rates, exchange rates, fiscal deficit or net exports, but has impact on Chhina＇ s GDP, money supply and foreign exchange reserves.