基于博弈论与灰色关联分析法的城市配电网安全综合评价

City Level Power Grid Security Comprehensive Evaluation Based on Game Theory and Grey Relational Analysis

城配网安全稳定问题一直是电力系统关注的对象,而以往电力生产中存在许多不安全的不确定性因素,针对其安全评价的需要,构建一套较完整的安全综合评价指标体系。提出一种基于博弈论和灰色关联分析法的城配网安全综合评价模型;采用博弈论集合模型组合各个方法的权重得到客观权重值,提出采用面积关联分析法确定模型的分辨系数,进而得到二级灰色面积关联分析进行综合评价。通过某城配网5个新建项目运行情况的综合评价,说明项目B在综合评价的结果上明显优于其他项目,具有较高的安全性,同时也验证了所提方法的有效性和合理性。

The security and stability of city level power grid is the focus of the power system. There are many unsafe factors with uncertainty in the past electric power production. This paper builds a set of relatively complete safety comprehensive evaluation index system aiming at the need of the safety evaluation. A kind of city level comprehensive evaluation model is put forward based on game theory and grey relation analysis. Game theory collection mode is used to determine the objective weights through the weight of each method and area correlation analysis is proposed to determine the model distinguish coefficient, Then the secondary grey area correlation analysis gets the comprehensive evaluation. This paper makes a test with five new project and operation of a city level power grid to get the comprehensive evaluation. That project B is superior to other projects on the comprehensive evaluation result. The safety, validity and rationality of the proposed method are demonstrated.