焉耆盆地种植冬小麦气候可行性分析

Climate Feasibility Analysis of Planting Winter Wheat in Yanqi Basin

焉耆盆地种植冬小麦关键在于越冬期气象条件能否保证冬麦安全越冬。通过对焉耆县近60 a来冬季气候变化特征分析,年极端最低气温总体呈上升趋势,趋势变化率为0.67℃/10 a;极端最低气温与积雪深度成明显的反相关,相关系数r=-0.62,即没有积雪的年份最低气温一般不会特别低;60 a中积雪深度不到5 cm且最低气温低于-24℃的概率只有14%,正常年份焉耆盆地种植强抗寒性冬麦品种可以安全越冬。2008、2009年冬季偏暖,无稳定积雪覆盖,极端最低气温分别为-17.9℃、-21℃,试种冬麦均获得成功。

The key factor of planting winter wheat in Yanqi Basin depending on the weather conditions whether winter wheat can safely live through the winter or not. The analysis of the recent 60 years＇ climatic characteristics in Yanqi basin in this paper reveals that annually extreme minimum temperature shows an uptrend in general with tendency change rate of 0.67 ℃/10 a; the extreme minimum temperature is inversely correlated with the snow depth, with correlation coefficient of -0.62, that means the minimum temperature usually not be very low in the year when there is no accumulated snow; for 60 years the probability of that the depth of accumulated snow depth is below 5 cm with the extreme minimum temperature lower than - 24 ℃ is only 14%, which means the kind of strong cold-resistant winter wheat in Yanqi basin can live through the winter safely in a normal year. Trial planting of winter wheat succeeded in 2008 and 2009, when there were warm winters with no constant snow cover and extreme minimum temperatures was -17.9 ℃ and -21 ℃ respectively.