金融发展、经济增长与产业升级动态交互影响研究——基于甘肃省市级数据的面板VAR分析

On the Dynamic and Interacting Relationships among Financial Development, Economic Growth and Industrials Upgrading —Analysis Based on PVAR Model by Using City Level Data of Gansu

本文使用甘肃省12个市2003—2010年的面板数据,运用面板VAR估计方法,对各市金融发展、经济增长与产业升级之间的动态交互影响进行了实证分析。结果显示:甘肃省12个市的金融发展并未显著地促进经济长期增长和产业结构升级;产业结构调整能促进金融发展,但却对经济增长产生负面影响;经济增长在促进产业结构调整的同时,却制约了金融发展;甘肃各市之间的金融资源分布不平衡,导致金融业发展和产业结构升级对经济增长影响的区域差异较大。在此基础上,本文提出相关对策建议。

By using the city level panel data of Gansu province during 2003-2010 and the PVAR model, this paper aims to empirically examine the dynamic and interacting relationships among financial development, economic growth and industrials upgrading. The empirical results show that the financial development can not significantly accelerate economic growth and industrial restructuring in the 12 cities of Gansu province. Adjustment of industrial structure can promote financial development, whereas it dose not produce certain positive role to economic growth. , Economic growth has restricted the financial development while promoting adjustment of industrial structure in those cities. It is also found in the article that the imbalance distribution of financial resources between cities leads to the regional differences of the impact of financial development and industrial upgrading on the economic growth. Finally, some policies are put forward based on the previous analysis.