高频通信可用频率现报与预报方法

Nowcasting and Short-term Forecasting Method for Maximum Usable Frequency of HF Communication Base on Oblique Sounder

提出了基于斜向探测数据进行高频通信最大可用频率实时现报和短期预报的一种实用方法。该方法以实时斜向探测的MUF及其短期预报数据为基础,利用经验反演和等比加权重构方法进行电离层参数分析,并基于ITU高频频率预报方法实现了高频通信链路可用频率的实时现报和短期预报。通过预报实例验证了方法的实用性:实时现报统计均方根误差为1.41 MHz、相对误差为10.09%;短期预报统计均方误差为1.48 MHz、相对误差11.90%;对比长期预报结果,实时现报和短期预报有较大的精度提升。

A nowcasting and short-term forecasting method for maximum usable frequency of HF commtmica- tion base on oblique sounder is presented. The method includes three steps： firstly, the critical frequency at the path midpoint is inversed from the oblique sounding data and its forecasting data by based on simple em- pirical method; secondly, the critical frequency is reconstructed by geometric proportion weighted method; in the end, the nowcasting and short-term forecasting results is given for maximum usable frequency of HF com- munication circuit. By using the oblique sounding data of during March 2012, the accuracy and practicability of the method are validated： the root-mean-square error of the nowcasting method are 1.41 MHz and 10.09%, and that of short-term forecasting method are 11.48 and 11.90%. The accuracy of nowcasting and short-term forecasting method is improved obviously, contrasting to that of the long-term prediction method.