基于区域人口承载力的超大城市人口规模调控研究

Research on Population Scale Regulation of Megacities Based on the Regional Population Carrying Capacity

当前中国超大城市"城市病"日益突出,成为影响城镇化建设的重要问题。如何进行城市人口的宏观调控,已成为超大城市普遍面临的一个重要问题。从区域人口承载力研究入手,认为人口承载力的传统研究与现实情况屡屡相悖的原因在于对人口承载力的影响因素出现误判,提出以就业为主的经济因素是区域人口承载力的直接影响因素,其他因素作为经济因素的成本要素间接影响着区域人口承载力。由此利用生产函数构建了区域人口承载力模型并以北京为例进行了仿真分析。在此基础上提出超大城市人口调控思路:调整产业结构,合理进行城市规划和公共服务设施布局,加强城市群建设,疏散中心城区的功能,促使产业集聚与人口聚集协同发展。

The ＂urban diseases＂ problems of super cities have become increasingly prominent, and become an important issue affecting urbanization construction at present. How to regulate the population scale has been an important issue for most megacities. We studies the population scale regulation of megacities from the point of view of population carrying capacity, and put forward that the source for deviation occurring between traditional researches on population carrying capacity and reality situation lies in the misjudgment on the factors influencing the population carrying capacity and that the employment-oriented economic factors are direct factors influencing the regional population carrying capacity, and other factors are indirect ones as cost factors of economic factors. The model for regional population carrying capacity has been established and the simulation analysis has been carried out for Beijing. On this basis, we propose that regional population should be regulated by industrial reconstructing and scientific city planning based on the factor analysis on population carrying capacity.