3E系统协调度评价模型应用及其比较研究

Comparison Study on 3E System Coordinating Evaluation Models

3E系统协调度评价模型作为国家能源、经济与环境系统评价与规划的重要工具有着广泛的应用前景。随着计量技术的发展,协调度评价方法也不断革新,为实际应用提供了多种选择。选取3E系统协调度评价目前最常用的三类模型,对湖南省3E系统的协调度进行测算评价,在此基础上,运用第一错判率及第二错判率对三类模型进行比较。结果表明:三类协调度评价模型由于理论基础不同其适用性存在较大差异,而在准确性方面,综合型协调度评价模型最为优越,距离型协调度评价模型其次,变化型协调度评价模型则相对最低。

3E system coordinating evaluation models have broad application prospects as important tools for evaluation and planning of national energy, economic and environmental systems. With the development of measurement technology, coor- dinating evaluation methods are innovative, providing a variety of choices for practical applications. The paper selects three common types of 3E system coordinating evaluation models, calculates the coordination of 3E system in Hunan province, and then compares three common types of models using the first and second misclassification rates. The results show that the three types of coordinating evaluation models＇ applicability are quite different as their different theoretical basis, and the integrated coordinating evaluation model are more advantageous in accuracy than the distance type coordinating evalua- tion model and the change type coordinating evaluation model which has the relative lowest accuracy.