摘要
The increase of probability and depth of weather anomalies, which is important characteristic of climate change process, leads to higher risk of loss of perennial grasses forage yield, rise of price volatility on forage grain market. Increase of sustainability of dairy production supposes development of adapted to new weather conditions technologies of forage production, which are characterized by different investment and current costs. It generates a need of economic evaluation and comparative analysis of technologies taking into account climate change forecast and need of sustainable forage production guarantee. Purpose of the research project is the development of approaches to assessing adaptive technologies in forage production, increasing of dairy farming sustainability to changes in the external environment, including climate change. We assessed changes in forage production technologies in the Leningrad region of Russia, analyzed the implications of these changes for production and financial performance of dairy farming, proposed and tested methods for determination of the optimum harvesting time of perennial grasses. Special attention is paid to the long-term effects of changing the structure of cows＇ diet--shortening the productive use of animals, which reduces the efficiency of dairy herd use and limits the possibility of expanded reproduction. The primary method of the study is the analysis of milk production statistics in the Leningrad region and the Russian Federation. As a result of the study, the necessity to improve the production and investment planning quality, as well as the use of forecasts during planning of dairy production, is grounded.
