基于县域单元的陕西苹果越冬冻害风险分布

Research on Apple Wintering Frost Damage Risk Distribution Based on County Level in Shaanxi Province

为了有效利用气候资源、趋利避害、合理规划和发展陕西苹果产业,促进县域苹果种植布局优化,实现健康、可持续生产,依据3个苹果种植代表县县站与其境内区域站越冬期气温的关系,进行概率移植,借助各代表县县站1971—2011年越冬期气温数据,计算获得各代表县县站及其境内区域站苹果不同等级越冬期冻害的发生概率。根据对30多个苹果越冬冻害历史个例的分析结果,分别赋予苹果越冬期轻度、中度、重度等级冻害0.3、0.5和0.7的灾损系数。依据气候致灾风险的基本原理和模型,计算获得各代表县县站及其境内区域站的越冬期冻害风险指数.并基于GIS系统制作了各代表县的降尺度苹果越冬期冻害风险分布图。

In order to effectively use local climate resources, reasonably plan and develop Shaanxi apple industry, and optimize apple planting layout in county level to get healthful and sustainable product, the research was carried out and described in this paper. Transplanting probability was conducted according to the relationship between wintering temperature in 3 apple planting counties and its regional automatic weather stations. By using winter temperature data during 1971 to 2011 from the weather stations of the 3 apple plant counties, this paper calculated the probability of damage to apple plant by frost at different weather stations as well as their regional automatic weather stations. According to the result of analyzing more than 30 historical apple wintering disaster cases, damage loss coefficient was got encoding 0.3, 0.5, 0.7 as mild, moderate, severe level, separately. Besides, by using the fundamental theories and model of climate hazard risk, the apple wintering frost damage risk index of the representative apple plant counties’ weather stations was successfully obtained. The result is visualized by drawing the apple wintering frost damage down scaling risk maps in using GIS system.