2013年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

Performance Verification of Medium-Range Forecasting by T639 and ECMWF and Japan Model from June to August 2013

对2013年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本数值模式的中期预报产品进行了对比分析和检验。结果表明:就西太平洋副热带高压而言,ECMWF模式预报效果较为优越。3家数值模式对今年夏季出现在我国中东部地区的异常高温天气均提前给出预报。但ECMWF模式预报的高温持续时间以及高温幅度均更接近实况,且ECMWF模式对高温天气转折预报效果较好。对1307号强台风,ECMWF模式较好地预报台风登陆位置及路径变化,但预报强度偏弱;而T639和日本模式预报台风登陆时间均偏晚。

The performances of medium range forecasts from the models of T639, ECMWF and Japan during June-August 2013 are verified and compared. The results show that ECMWF have best performance in predicting western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH）. The three models all have good performances in predicting the anomaly high temperature in central and eastern part of China. As far as duration, range and turning time of high temperature weather are concerned, ECMWF plays better than the other two models. In addition, ECMWF has better performance in the prediction of the track and the landing time of typhoon Suli than T639 and JP, however the forecasting intensity of ECMWF is worse than that of the observation.