中国区域投资多寡的空间尺度检验——基于省份投资与其增长效应一致性视角

A Spatial Scale Test on China's Regional Overinvestment or Underinvestment——Based on the Consistency of Province's Investment and Its' Growth Effect

长期以来,投资的多寡之争成为中国经济实践和学术讨论的重要议题,但现有研究并未抓住"投资引致增长"这一本质内生机理而展开研究讨论。本文在使用局部回归方法获取中国区域(分省份)投资增长效应估测值的基础上,对投资与其增长效应的一致性进行了实证考察,以此作为评判投资多了还是少了的识别标准。结果表明,区域投资多寡存在明显的时空差异,且投资作用发挥存在交替性;根源于投资的低度增长效应,西部省份多呈现出明显的投资过度嫌疑,扭转低效率空间格局已经成为必须直面的实践难题。究其根源,主要是地方政府主导的产业结构转变和发展战略选择决定了最终的投资规模。从治理层面来讲,要解决区域投资失调问题,可将设法避免投资选择的短视行为、重视投资与消费的结构平衡并侧重于效率提升作为切入点,同时需要兼顾区域公平和平衡发展。

It has always been a key issue to criticize between overinvestment and underinvestment in China＇ s economic practice, however, literatures have ignored the essence： investment lead to growth. In this paper, we gained China＇s regional investment growth effect by using a local regression method, based on which we calculated the consistency ratio and provided a criterion for overinvestment and underinvestment. Result shows that： conclusions on overinvestment or underinvestment are of significant spatio-temporal variation, with alternative growth effect from investment; Due to low investment growth effect, western provinces are more inclined to overinvestment, so efficiency promotion needs to be considered; Local government-led industrial structure transformation and the choice of development strategic have affected the investment behavior, thus keep the balance of investment and consumption, focus on efficiency improvement and avoid short-term behavior will be the key to solve regional investment problems.