低电价陷阱:电价水平与经济发展的关系实证研究

The Trap of Low Electricity Price:Empirical Research on the Relationship between Price Level and Economic Development

考虑到低电价带来的低电能成本有利于促进经济发展,中国的电价政策长期采用低电价模式。低电价是否能够真正促进国民经济的可持续发展?国内外理论研究与政策实践中并没有明确的结论。本文揭示了低电价模式产生的经济理论依据,并结合中国不同经济区域之间电价水平与经济发展的实际情况,分析了低电价水平对经济发展的动态影响。研究结果表明:低电价水平产生的社会福利最大化效果只是静态的,长期内电价水平与经济发展水平不仅没有明显的负相关关系,相反,整体上呈现出一种显著的正相关关系。导致这种结果的主要原因是:低电价虽然在短期内有利于经济发展,但是长期将诱导高耗能产业发展,不利于产业结构的调整和经济增长方式的转型,最终不利于经济发展。本文把这种现象称为"低电价陷阱",并认为目前中国电价政策要从"低电价陷阱"中走出来,采用以平均成本为基础的"高电价模式"。"高电价模式"不仅有利于维护电力企业利益,形成保障电力供应的长效机制;更重要的是能够直接推动用电企业经济增长方式转型和地区产业结构优化升级。

Taking into account that the cheap energy cost brought by low electricity price is conducive to the economic development, in the price policy of China, the low-tariff model was adopting in a long time. But, whether low price can really promote the sustainable development of the national economy？ In fact there is no clear conclusion. This article reveals the economic theory and forms for the low price model,and analysis the low price of the dynamic impact on economic growth by studying the relationship between price level and economic development in the different economic region of China. The results show that： the low price level on the social welfare maximization effect just static. There is no significant negative correlation between price level and the level of economic development. On the contrary, a positive correlation is showed as a whole. Leading to this result was mainly due to：the low electricity price is conducive to economic development in the short term, the perennial maintenance is not good for the adjustment of industrial structure and the transformation of economic growth mode. This phenomenon is known as＂the trap of price＂. Price policy should come out from ＂the trap of price＂, and adopt the high price model that based on true cost. ＂High price model＂ is not only to safeguard the interests of power enterprises,formate the long-term mechanism to ensure power supply, but also to promote the transformation of the economic growth mode for electricity companies and upgrading of industrial structure.