我国产业结构变迁的RAS分析

Input-output analysis of structure change in China based on RAS model

技术进步与投入相对价格的变化都将导致整个国民经济生产结构变化,然而,从已知投入产出系数矩阵变化反向推导出引致变化的原因并不容易.本文试图将经典的投入产出表更新与调平技术RAS拓展为产业结构变化的分析模型,在事先不预设产业结构变化是需求驱动还是供给驱动的条件下,把投入系数矩阵的变化分解为列变化、行变化和特定变化.从而,定量分析我国产业结构变动及其原因.我们的研究发现,我国产业结构在向高度化发展的同时,劳动密集型产业仍在高速增长,这反映出我国区域经济发展的不平衡性,产业升级内化为地区间产业转移的效应.

Technological developments and changes in relative prices lead to changes in the entire production structure. It is not easy to inversely derive the causes of changes from given changes of input-output coefficient matrix. RAS algorithm is a method to update and levelling typical input-out table. The paper attempts to expand this algorithm for the analysis model of changes in the industrial structure, and to decompose the input coefficient changes into column-specific, row-specific and cell-specific changes without setting industrial structure changes by demand-driven or supply-driven in advance. After that, quantitative analysis about changes in the industrial structure and the reasons of them in China is done in this paper. We find that while industrial structure in China is developing sophisticatedly, labor-intensive industries grow in a high rate, which reflects imbalanced regional development of Chinese economy, and the effect of internalization from industrial upgrading into regional industrial transfer.