基于蒙特卡罗模拟的直觉正态云多准则群决策方法

Multiple criteria group decision making method based on intuitionistic normal cloud by Monte Carlo simulation

定义了直觉正态云模型,提出了基于直觉正态云的多准则群决策方法.该方法将不同决策者给出的不确定决策信息看作是直觉正态云中部分云滴的集合,以此对云的参数加以估计.同时,为了比较决策者对不同方案的偏好,设计了直觉正态云发生算法,并利用该算法通过蒙特卡罗模拟生成各方案综合表现云的云滴样本并进行统计,按统计结果来对各方案综合评价云进行排序.最后实例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性.

Intuitionistic normal cloud model is defined. And a multi-criteria group decision making method based on intuitionistic normal cloud is proposed. The uncertain decision information elicited from different decision makers are considered as some collections of the cloud drops of an intuitionistic normal cloud. Then, the parameters of this cloud can be estimated. For comparing the decision makers＇ preference on the alternatives, an algorithm for generating intuitionistic normal clouds drops is designed. And a Monte Carlo simulation based on this algorithm is adopted as well. The samples for this simulation are the drops of the intuitionistic normal clouds corresponding to the conjoint performances of the alternatives. The decision makers can order the alternatives and choose the feasible option according to the statistical results from the simulation. A practical example is also provided to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.