基于MaxEnt模型的对粒材小蠹的适生性分析

The Potential Geographic Distribution of Xyleborus perforans Based on the MaxEnt

对粒材小蠹(Xyleborus perforans Wollaston)是天然橡胶产区重要的危险性害虫之一,是世界重要的检疫性有害生物。利用MaxEnt和GIS软件预测该虫在中国范围内气候条件适宜存活的区域,在此基础上结合寄主分布特征,定量地获得了对粒材小蠹的潜在发生区。预测结果显示:对粒材小蠹的适生区主要分布在东亚、东南亚、加勒比海沿岸、非洲西部和东部、大洋洲北部、美国南部和墨西哥部分地区;在中国,该小蠹能广泛分布在华南地区和西南的部分地区,并提供了ArcGIS适生区预测分布图;最湿润月降水量、年温度变化、最热季度降水量和昼夜温差月均值是影响对粒材小蠹空间分布的4个主要环境因子,计算结果经ROC曲线分析法验证,MaEnt生态位模型的AUC值为0.936。表明预测获得了较好的效果,此研究可为对粒材小蠹的检疫及防治决策的制定提供科学依据。

Xyleborus perforans Wollaston,one of the most serious pests in natural rubber planting areas,was one of the most important quarantine pests worldwide.In this paper,the areas with suitable climate conditions for the X.perforans survival was predicted using MaxEnt software,based on which,the potential geographic distribution of the X.perforans was predicted combinging the host plant distribution.The results showed that the optimal suitable establishment areas of X.perforans were mainly in east Asia,southeast Asia,the Caribbean,west Africa,east Africa,north oceania,American south and the part of areas of Mexico,In China,the areas was south China and parts of southwest China.The predicted potential distribution of X.perforans was illustrated by ArcGIS.Results showed that precipitation of wettest month,temperature annual range,precipitation of warmest quarter and mean diurnal range were the four forcing environmental factors.The checked result conducted by ROC curve analysis method showed that the AUC value of MaxEnt ecological niche models reached 0.936,indicating that the predicted results was fairly well.This study would provide scientific proofs for making the policies on the quarantine,the prevention and the control of X.perforans.