“中等收入陷阱”命题与争论:一个文献研究的视角

Proposition and Debate on“Middle Income Trap”: A Prospective from Literature Research

"中等收入陷阱"没有系统的增长经济学与发展经济学理论依据。经济发展既是从低收入到中等收入和高收入阶段的过程,也是不断克服和跨越系列"发展陷阱"的过程。"中等收入陷阱"的本质是经济增长方式及其动力转换问题;基本特点是增速长期放慢,收入差距扩大,社会矛盾与危机不断;根本原因在于体制机制和结构性瓶颈。成功跨越"中等收入陷阱",核心与关键在于通过创新驱动转变经济增长模式,为经济增长探索新的源泉和动力机制。中国正在面临跨越"中等收入陷阱"的挑战,未来十年是中国经济能否成功跨越这个阶段的关键时期。问题的实质是中国经济发展方式问题。中国跨越"中等收入陷阱"的唯一出路,就是推动真正意义上的"创新驱动、转型发展",通过实施技术创新战略、制度创新战略和商业模式创新战略,加快创新驱动新发展,这是中国未来成功跨越"中等收入陷阱"的重要方向和路径。

＂Middle income trap＂ has not gained systematic support from development economics theories, but literature work has proved that economy development is a process from low-income level, middle-income level to high income level, along which is fulfilled with continuous and various development traps. The substance of middle income trap, which is characterized as slow growth, income disparity, social chaos and economy crisis, is resulted from the transition problems in economy development pattern and dynamics which origins from the bottle neck effects of an economy institutions and mechanisms. China is now faced with huge challenges of middle income trap because its poor performance in the next decade would prevent from crossing the trap. The dominant problem for China is the development pattern which requires fundamental change towards an ＂innovation- driven＂ and ＂transitional development＂ which should consist of technology innovation strategy, institution innovation strategy and business-model innovation strategy. The innovation-driven development would guide China to jump over the middle income trap in the next decade.