应急投送保障基地应对不确定需求物资预储决策研究

Study on Decision-Making Model of Material Storage for Emergency Projection Support Bases

分析了不确定因素的主要来源及对物资需求产生的影响，综合考虑运输装备、运输路况、装卸水平、气候环境、组织水平、信息化水平6个不确定因素，建立了基于不确定性优化的物资预储数量决策模型，并进行了模型验证。结果表明，该模型具有较好的可行性，能够为应急投送保障基地物资预储决策提供参考。

The uncertainty is a key question to be taken into account for making storage decision. The paper analyzed the main uncertainty elements and the effect to materials storage. A decision - making model was built and validated based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method considering 6 kinds of uncertainty elements ： transportation equipments, ways situa- tion, loading level, climate environment, command level, and informationization level. It can provide theory reference to e- mergency projection support based on material storage decision -making.