俄罗斯社会转型动因探析

A Probe into the Reasons of Russia's Social Transformation

俄罗斯的社会转型得到了学术界广泛的研究,对其转型动因较有影响的解释是S·亨廷顿在《第三波》一书中提出的五个观点,但这些动因只是对当时一些客观背景的简单概括和总结,并不具有普遍的解释力。针对俄罗斯的具体社会转型过程,运用新制度经济学的理论,从"因果论"的逻辑视角,提出俄罗斯社会转型动因的假说并进行证明,发现制度变迁是俄罗斯社会转型的主要因变量,其转型动因是政治制度、经济制度、正式制度和非正式制度四个因变量的互动和叠加。

The academia has extensively studied Russia＇s social transformation. The more influential explanation of its transformation is the five views that S. P. Huntington explained in The Third Wave： Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Unfortunately, the views were just some objective background simple summaries and conclusions, and they did not have universal explanatory power. For the specific process of Russia＇ s social transformation, using the theories of New Institutional Economics, the article not only proposes a hypothesis of Russia＇s social transformation and testifies the hypothesis as well form the causal-theory logic perspective. In conclusions, the article finds that the institutional change is the main dependent variable of Russia＇s social transformation, and that the reasons of its transformation are the interactions of four dependent variables such as the political system, the economic system, the formal institutions and the informal institutions.