福建省引种台湾青枣的寒冻害风险分析与区划

Risk analysis and regionalization of cold and freezing damage to Taiwan-based Zizyphus mauritiana in Fujian Province

为了摸清台湾青枣在福建复杂地形下引种的寒冻害风险,规避在高风险区引种,本文依据灾害风险系统理论、气象和农业经济资料,在分析寒冻害危险性、青枣脆弱性和引种区防寒防冻能力的基础上,应用层次分析法、熵权系数法、加权综合评价法等构建了台湾青枣寒冻害风险评价指标和模型,对福建省引种台湾青枣的寒冻害风险程度进行等级评价和区域划分。结果表明:在风险因素构成上,寒冻害危险性在综合风险中起决定性作用,引种区防寒防冻能力只能略微减轻寒冻害带来的风险。惠安县、厦门市以南沿海县市的青枣引种区为轻度寒害风险区域,该区域寒冻害致灾危险性指数低,中度以上的寒冻害发生频次少或没有出现过;漳州市内陆的较低海拔地区,福州市沿海低海拔地区,同安区、惠安县及永春县的部分区域为中度寒冻害风险区域,该区域寒冻害危险性指数相对较低,中度以上寒冻害发生频次相对较少;其余青枣引种区的冻害风险在重度以上,其中龙岩市、漳州市西部山区、福州市西部和北部山区、永春县、宁德市辖区及霞浦县有严重冻害风险。结合近年来福建出现的青枣寒冻害个例分析,青枣寒冻害形态表征程度与该地域风险评估结果较为吻合,风险区划结果可为福建引种台湾青枣提供布局决策参考。

This study determined the risk of cold and freezing damage to Zi：Fphus mauritiana introduced to the complex terrains of Fujian Province from Taiwan Province in order to avoid planting the crop in high risk areas. Based on disaster risk system theory, the study used meteorological, agricultural and economic data to analyze potential hazards of cold and freezing damage and vulnerability of Z mauritiana. The study also investigated the prevention measures of cold and freezing damage in the cultivated regions and developed a model-driven index system of evaluation based on the AHP, entropy-weight coefficient and comprehensive weighting methods. The study further determined the degree and region of risk of cold nd freezing damage to Z mauritiana in Fujian. In terms of risk factor composition, the results showed that potential hazard was the determinant factor of cold and freezing damage and prevention measures only mitigated this potential. For risk region, the areas of lighter risk of cold and freezing damage to Z. mauritiana were Hui＇an County of Xiamen Region and the coastal counties to the south of Xiamen Region. The potential hazard of cold and freezing damage was low in these regions and frequency occurrence of moderate or severe damages were less or even non-existent. The regions with moderate risk were in the low elevation areas of Zhangzhou Inland Region, low elevation areas of the coastal counties of Fuzhou Region, and parts of Yongchun County, Tong＇an District and Hui＇an County, The occurrence frequency of moderate or severe damages was relatively low in the areas. Other cultivated regions of Z. mauritiana had severe risk of cold and freezing damage. Among the regions, cold and freezing damage risk was evere in Longyan City, the western mountain areas of Zhangzhou Region, the western and northern mountain areas of Fuzhou Reion, Yongchun County, Ningde City and Xiapu County.Based on the risk evaluation results and Z. mauritiana cold and freezing damage, the morphological characterization of cold and freezing damage to 2＂. mauritiana was consistent with the risk evaluation results. The results of the study offered the basis for decisions on Z mauritiana cultivation and arrangement in Fujian Province.