城乡社会保障统筹制度的实证研究——基于农村社会保险的多元logistic回归分析

Empirical Study on Urban and Rural Social Security Co-ordination——Based on Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis of the Rural Social Insurance

要对中国城乡社会保障统筹政策的效果进行评价,需通过对新型农村养老保险和新型农村合作医疗保险两项制度的研究来实现。本文通过对中国农村社会保险的多元logistic回归分析发现,在新型农村养老保险方面,未来养老问题与养老金领取年龄的规定与新农保的制度评价呈显著正相关;在新型农村合作医疗方面,建立医疗保险专有账户与新农合的发展有较大关联性。因此,未来要实现城乡社会保障统筹的目的,需要在商业化养老保险的介入、医疗保险专有账户的建立以及特殊社会保险的实施等方面完善农村的社会保险制度。

The policy effects evaluation about urban and rural social security co-ordination should be mainly through new rural endowment insurance and the new rural cooperative medical insurance system improvement. Multivariate logistic regres- sion analysis of the rural social insurance found that in the new rural endowment insurance, the future problems and pension age for pensioners have a significant positive correlation evaluation to new agricultural insurance system; in the new rural coopera- tive medical care, the establishment of medical insurance proprietary accounts and the new rural cooperative development have greater relevance. Therefore, to consummate the social insurance system in rural areas, we should involve the commercial pen- sion insurance, created special medical insurance social insurance and implemented the special social insurance, to achieve the purpose of co-ordinating urban and rural social security.