量化宽松的潜在冲击与中国的反制政策

Potential Impact and Countermeasures:Quantitative Easing in the Perspective of China's Macroeconomic Policy

欧美日量化宽松政策在短短数月之内频繁宣布并出台虽说不能完全被认定为"货币战争",但其政策出台的速度、强度和影响在某种程度上已经远远超出教科书的一般化定义,需引起我们的高度重视。中国当下正面临左右为难的政策选择,应对的关键在于不应只看到量化宽松短期对我国的不利影响,更要看到对我国长期经济增长所存在的契机。可从审慎战略出发,制定短期和长期的两种政策组合,实现对欧美日频繁量化宽松的"防守反击"。

＂Quantitative easing＂ is a monetary policy of improving currency issued by open market operations and achie- ving the instantaneous increase of exogenous money supply. Europe, Japan and the United States＇ ＂quantitative easing＂, which were announced in just a few months frequently, are not fully identified as ＂currency war＂, but its policy rate, strength and in- fluence, to some extent, has gone far beyond the general definition from textbook and it need to be valued seriously. Now, Chi- na faces a dilemma in the policy space. We shouldn＇t only see the short-term adverse impact on our national economy, but also see more olbportunities to China＇s long-term economic growth. China＇s central government can resist the frequently ＂quantitative easing＂ from Europe, Japan and the United States and strike back in real-time by making short-term and long-term dual policy combination based on cautious strategy.