摘要
自2003年以来,中国多次出现在工业品价格相对平缓背景下农产品价格冲高的结构性价格上涨现象。作者采用CF滤波分离出周期部分发现,按照"谷一谷"法划分,2003年后中国工农产品价格结构性波动经历了三个较为完整的周期。工农产品价格结构性上涨既会通过通货膨胀效应以及福利损失对国民经济产生负面冲击,也蕴含着扭转城乡收入差距、平衡产业结构的有利方面。政府在应对工农产品价格结构性上涨时,需要正确认识农产品价格的适度上涨和工业品价格的平稳态势,应以防过热和调结构为导向,管理过快的价格结构性上涨。
From 2003 to now, contrary to industrial price, agricultural price has shown an obvious rising. Based on CF decomposing method, we found that there were three cyclical fluctuations in this period according to ‘ wave trough to wave trough'. Structural price rise does not only aggravate inflation and welfare loss, but also adjusts industrial structure and narrows the urban-rural income gap. When structural price is rising, the government should keep an eye on the agricultural price's rising and industrial price's steady status correctly, and control the over-rapid structural price rising by means of preventing overheated economic growth and adjust economic structure.
出处
《学术研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第11期70-76,160,共7页
Academic Research
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“巨灾风险管理机制设计及路径选择研究”(12AGL008)
教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目“政府诱导型巨灾保险制度研究”(2012JA79102)资助
