是土地供应量与房地产税赋提高了房价吗

Are the supply of land and real estate taxes pushing the house prices

自分税制实施后,"土地财政"成为我国地方政府获取收入以支撑财政支出的主要选择,而与此同时房价也在不断上涨。中央政府从民生角度要求地方政府对房价实施调控,地方政府则主要通过调整土地供给量和房地产税税赋来施加影响。土地供应量和税赋会影响供需双方从而影响房价,反过来房价又会影响税收收入及开发商对土地的需求,进而影响社会民生。本文对我国东、中、西部地区住房价格和土地供给量、房地产税税赋之间的关系进行分析,探讨各地区的住房价格上涨原因。通过构建住房价格和土地供给量、房地产税税赋之间的PVAR模型,利用格兰杰因果检验、脉冲分析和方差分解方法来透视地方政府行为对住房价格的影响。分析结果显示,地方政府行为和房价之间存在着联动关系,但在推动住房价格上涨的原因上存在着区域差异:在东部地区,土地供应量影响房价;中部地区,二者联合推动了房价上涨。而在西部地区,房地产税税赋对房价的影响明显。在政策建议上,对地价推动房价的地区要从丰富住房来源和数量入手,而税赋影响房价的地区则要完善相关税制改革。

Since the implementation of the ＂revenue -sharing tax scheme＂, ＂land finance＂ has become the main choice to support the expenditure of local government, meanwhile housing prices are rising continuously. The central government requires local governments to regulate prices from the perspective of livelihood, local governments exert influence primarily by adjusting the supply of land and real estate tax. The supply of land and taxes affecting both supply and demand influence the price, which in turn would affect tax revenue and the demand for land by developers, thereby worsen people＇s livelihood. This article analyses the relationship between the housing price and government behaviors to explore reasons for housing prices rose by sampling housing prices and land supply, real estate tax in China＇s eastern, central and western regions. By building PVAR model involving housing prices and land supply, the real estate tax, plus using Granger causality test, pulse analysis and variance decomposition methods to perceive the influence on housing prices by local government behaviors. The research shows that the linkage relationship exists between local government behavior and housing price, but there are regional differences in the causes of housing prices increase ： in the east, land supply affects the price; central region, both jointly promote housing prices. In the western region, the lands don＇t increase the housing prices, but the impact of taxes on housing prices is significant. In the policy recommendations, in the area whose housing prices driven by land area, source and quantity of housing to be rich; while that affected by taxes the relevant tax reform should be improved.