基于灰色理论的围岩注浆效果预测研究

Predication of the Grouting Effect of Surrounding Rock Based on the Theory of Grey

研究目的:小导管注浆能有效的提高围岩稳定性,但在现实施工中,导管注浆到围岩稳定往往存在一段时间差,因此提前预测围岩注浆效果有着十分重要的现实意义。GM(1,1)模型可以作为相对简洁的围岩变化时间函数应用于注浆后围岩敛散的预测,但传统的GM(1,1)模型在地质条件复杂的围岩注浆效果预测中存在局限性。本文对传统灰色理论模型的背景值做了改进,力图通过改进后的模型更加准确的预测注浆后围岩变化趋势,从而指导后续施工。研究结论:(1)GM(1,1)模型可以比较准确的预测注浆后的注浆效果,模型预测的精确性与围岩影响因素、围岩的复杂程度有关;(2)基于背景值改进后的GM(1,1)模型精确度的提高取决于与原模型的预测精度,改进后的模型适用于影响因素多,变化更加复杂的围岩;(3)本文结合工程实例,将计算值与实际值做了对照,验证了改进后灰色模型的精确性,可以为今后隧道围岩注浆效果的预测提供一定的参考。

Research purposes： The advanced small pipe grouting can effectively improve the stability of surrounding rock, however, there is a long time to reach the stability of surrounding rock after grouting in actual construction, so predicting grouting effect of surrounding rock early is of great practical significance. GM （ 1, 1 ） model, as a relatively simple time function of surrounding rock variation, can be used to predict the divergence of surrounding rock. However, the traditional GM （ 1, 1 ） model has limitations in complex geological conditions. This paper changes the old model and makes it better , which is helpful for guiding the follow -up construction. Research conclusions： （ 1 ） GM （ 1, 1 ） model can accurately predict the grouting effect, and its accuracy relates to the influence factors and eomplexity of surrounding rock. （2） The degree of improvement of GM （ 1, 1 ） model based on optimization of background value depends on the prediction accuracy of the model. The improved model is suitable for complex surrounding rock which has more influence factors. （3） This paper based the engineering example, the calculation was compared with the actual value to verify the accuracy of the improved grey model, which can provide some reference to predict the grouting effect of surrounding rock.