宏观经济政策与公司资本结构动态调整路径研究——基于我国上市公司的经验证据

Macroeconomic Policy and the Choice of Corporate Financing Path:Based on Empirical Research on Listed Companies in China

本文利用435家非金融类上市公司的2010组非平衡面板数据,估计了财政政策和货币政策对上市公司的融资路径选择的影响。实证结果表明政府采用增加财政支出的扩张性财政政策时,公司倾向于选择内源融资,而进行外源融资时会优先利用股权融资,但是2008年降低公司所得税率的扩张性财政政策使得公司有选择外源融资特别是外部债权融资的倾向;当实行降低利率和增加货币供给的扩张性货币政策时,公司倾向于先使用外源融资,特别是外部债权资金。进一步的检验表明,宏观经济政策(降低所得税率除外)对公司资本结构调整路径的选择并不会因为公司的产权性质、负债水平而发生改变,但非国有公司、非过度负债公司融资路径选择对于宏观经济政策的变化更为敏感。

The paper constructed conditions of two logit model and estimated the financing choice （internal financing VS external financing, equity financing VS debt financing） using the un- balanced 2010 panel data of 435 companies, we found that： when the government used the expan- sionary fiscal policy of increasing government spending , companies tended to choose internal finan- cing, but once companies were externally financed, they preferred equity financing ;but the expan- sionary fiscal policy of reducing corporate income tax rate in 2008 made companies choose external financing especially external debt financing propensity; when the government used the expansionary monetary policy, companies tended to use external financing, and tend to use external debt finan- cing. The further test showed that the impact of macroeconomic factors （ except TAX） on the adjust- ment path of corporate capital structure did not vary with the nature of corporate property right and the debt level, and the non-state-owned corporate and non-excessive-liabilities corporate were more sensitive to macro economic factors.