基于截断泊松模型的景区游憩价值多案例评估

Multiple Case Assessment of Recreational Values of Scenic Spots Based on Truncated Poisson Model

分析了国外较新的游憩价值评估方法——高级个体旅行费用法(AITCM)的理论适用性,严格按照其调查流程对福建省太姥山、白水洋和冠豸山景区进行了实地调研,运用截断泊松模型实证估计旅游需求函数以评估游憩价值。研究结果表明:三个景区的游憩价值分别为5.9438亿元、2.4566亿元、1.8292亿元;旅行费用、景点游憩数、游憩时间、月收入与旅游需求呈现显著负相关,性别、教育程度与旅游需求呈现显著正相关;理论分析与计量检验表明基于截断泊松模型的AITCM是一种适用于评估景区游憩价值的有效性较高的方法。研究对于政府制定景区经营权交易政策,景区管理者衡量旅游的社会收益,以及投资者开发管理景区等都具有重要启示作用。

Advanced Individual Travel Cost Method （A1TCM） is a new recreation valuation method used by scholars, the paper analyzes the theoretical applicability of AITCM and conducts field research on scenic spots of Taimu Mountain, Baishuiyang and Guanzhai Mountain of Fujian Province in strict accordance with its investigation process. Moreover, the paper applies truncated poisson model to estimate travel demand functions for calculating recreation values. The research conclusions are as follows： first, recreational values of three scenic spots are 594.38 million Yuan, 245.66 million Yuan, 182.92 million Yuan respectively. Second, visitors＇ travel cost, the number of attractions, recreation time, monthly income are significantly positively related with travel demand; gender and education level are significantly negatively related with travel demand. Third, theoretical analysis and econometrics tests show that AITCM based on truncated poisson model is an applicable recreation valuation method with high level of validity. The paper has important inspiration for the government to make trade policy of management right, and for scenic spot managers to measure social benefits of tourism, and for investors to develop and management scenic spots.