基于面板数据的我国入境旅游经济与接待人数研究

The research on inbound tourism economy and the number of oversea visitor arrivals based on panel data in China

运用空间回归模型，选取中国大陆31个省份2003-2011年旅游外汇收入等相关面板数据指标，实证研究了我国入境旅游经济与接待人数之间的关系．结果表明：入境旅游经济与入境旅游人数存在正相关、稳定性以及长期动态均衡关系．在相同入境旅游人数的情况下，发达地区的旅游外汇收入高于其他地区；甘肃、湖南、山西3省接待人数对入境旅游经济的影响最大；新疆、海南、甘肃、青海等地的入境旅游经济对接待人数的依赖程度极强．

Taking 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities of China's Mainland as regional study unit, based on tourism foreign exchange earnings in 2003~2011, the relationship between inbound tourism economy and the number of oversea visitor arrivals in China is analyzed. The results are as following： there is a positive correla- tion, stability and long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between inbound tourism economy and the number of oversea visitor arrivals. On the premise of similar number of oversea visitor arrivals, tourism foreign exchange earn- ings in developed regions are higher than those in other regions; the number of oversea visitor arrivals in Gansu, Hunan, Shanxi provinces has high influence; and there is a strong dependence in Xinjiang, Hainan, Gansu, Qinghai etc.