国际市场因素对中国农产品价格影响的实证研究——基于VEC模型和脉冲响应函数分析

An Empirical Research of International Market Factors Affecting Prices of Agricultural Products in China: Based on VEC Model and Impulse Response Function

通过研究影响国内农产品价格的国际市场因素,建立了变量之间的VEC模型,并对该模型进行实证分析和检验,运用脉冲响应函数对变量之间的作用关系进行量化确认。得出国际石油价格和热钱炒作是我国农产品价格上涨的主要原因,国际农产品当期价格对国内农产品当期价格的传导效应不显著,但国际农产品价格的前期变动率对本期国内农产品价格会产生作用,同时,国际石油和国内热钱炒作对国内农产品价格的作用机制呈现出周期性规律。

By studying the impacts of international market factors on domestic agricultural prices, the paper establishes VEC model between variables, empirically analyzes and tests the model, and use impulse response function to quantitatively verify the relationship between the variables. Results show that the international oil prices and hot money speculation is the main reasons behind rising prices of agricultural products; international agricultural current prices shows no significant conduc-tion effect on domestic agricultural current prices, however, early changes of international prices of agricultural products have an effect on current rate of domestic agricultural prices; meanwhile, the mechanism of action of the international oil and do-mestic hot money speculation on domestic agricultural prices shows a periodic regularity.