国际煤炭价格与我国煤炭进出口的关系研究

Research on Relationship between China's Coal Import and Export and the International Coal Price

通过协整理论、VECM模型、脉冲响应函数和预测误差方差分解等方法对国际动力煤价格和我国动力煤进出口之间的相互影响进行了动态研究。结果表明:国际动力煤价格和我国动力煤进出口之间存在协整关系。短期内,我国动力煤出口和国际动力煤价格存在双向Granger因果关系,长期内则不存在。在实证分析的基础上,提出了相关结论和政策建议。

This paper analyzes the interaction between the international thermal coal price and the import and export of China＇s thermal coal by using the co integration, VECM model, impulse response function and the forecast error variance de- composition method. The results show that there exists a cointegration relationship between the international steam coal prices and the import and export of China＇s thermal coal. During the short term, there is two-way Granger causality between Chi-na＇s thermal coal exports and the international thermal coal price. During the long term, there is no two-way Granger causali-ty between China＇s thermal coal import, export and the international thermal coal price, but there is no such a relationship in the long run. Based on the empirical research, relevant results and pohcy recommendations are proposed.