美国燃料乙醇产量快速增长的原因及对国际玉米市场的影响

The Reasons of U. S. Fuel Ethanol Production Increase and Its Impact on International Maize Market

2000年以来,随着能源需求不断增长和原油价格上涨,以及产业政策的大力扶持,美国燃料乙醇出现井喷式增长,目前产量约占全球燃料乙醇产量的一半以上。面对美国燃料乙醇产业的快速发展是政策驱动还是市场驱动的争论,文章通过比较分析认为补贴政策是美国燃料乙醇发展的核心驱动力,而原油和玉米价格则是直接驱动力。作为全球最大的玉米生产国和贸易国,美国燃料乙醇的快速发展已成为影响全球玉米供求平衡、推高玉米市场价格的重要因素。在这样的背景下,中国玉米进口量逐年增加,为此中国必须准确定位自己的玉米进口依存度,提高玉米生产能力,积极保障国内粮食安全。

Since 2000, with the increasing energy demand and rising crude oil prices, as well as the fuel ethanol policy support, the production of U. S. fuel ethanol increases very fast and the current production accounts for more than half of global fuel ethanol production. In the face of the debate that the rapid increase of U. S. ethanol production is driven by government subsidy or market, this paper＇ s analysis results show that the subsidy policy is the core driving force in the development of fuel ethanol, and the price of crude oil and corn is the direct driving force. As the world＇s largest maize producer and exporter, the rapid development of fuel ethanol has significant effect on global maize. The imports of maize in China increased gradually, so China have to make maize import plan and improve its production capacity so that China could ensure domestic food security.