人口城镇化滞后于土地城镇化之谜——来自中国省际面板数据的解释

A Study on the Causes of Population Urbanization Lagiug Behind Land Urbanization

促进人口城镇化与土地城镇化的协调发展是中国推进新型城镇化的重点所在。以解释两者之间的发展失衡为主题,在运用省际面板数据进行实证检验后,主要得出结论:第一,工业化进程的加快带来了城市建设用地的大规模扩张,但对人口城镇化所发挥的"吸纳效应"则相对有限,人口城镇化因而滞后于土地城镇化的发展;第二,地方政府对土地财政的依赖使其财政收支与城镇化发展存在反向变化关系,而后者又进一步加剧了人口城镇化与土地城镇化的失衡;第三,户籍管制是人口城镇化发展缓慢的主要原因,而政策的放松和制度的改革则能促进城镇化的协调发展;第四,农地使用期限的延长由于其所带来的"保障效应"而有利于城镇化的协调发展,但效应的发挥应以完善的土地流转机制为前提。

Promoting the coordinative development of population urbanization and land urbanization is the key of China＇s new-type urbanization.With the subject of analyzing the imbalance of the development of population and land urbanization,using panel data of provinces,we draw the following conclusions：firstly,acceleration of industrialization process causes massive extension of city construction land,but limits ‘ absorb effect＇ on population urbanization,making population urbanization lag behind land urbanization;secondly,local governments relying on land finance result in an inverse association between fiscal revenue and expenditure and urbanization,which aggravates the imbalance of population and land urbanization i thirdly,controlling of household register is the primary cause of the slow development of population urbanization,however,loosening this policy and reforming the institutions will promote the development of urbanization; lastly,lengthening the use periods of farmland is good for the coordinative development of urbanization for its ‘ guarantee effect＇,but a perfect mechanism of land transfer should be taken for the premise.