应用投影寻踪自回归模型作第二代棉铃虫灾变性预测的研究

Catastrophe Prediction of the Second Generation of Helicoverpa Armigera Hübner by Projection Pursuit Autoregression (PPAR) Model

应用投影寻踪自回归方法 ,对第二代棉铃虫灾变性发生进行预测 ,其预测结果与用灰色系统理论方法预测结果比较 ,提高了预测精度 16.7%。

The Projection Pursuit Autoregression (PPAR) technology and grey system theory and method more compared by the analysing catastrophe prediction of the second generation of Helicoverpa armigera Hübner. The result of PPAR prediction method is more satisfactory than that of grey system prediction method.